The Visa Bulletin

I predict that EB3 will move one whole year so it will be Jan. 1 2006
Maybe I am over optimistic.. This is just a hunch! I am just looking at last year (2007) progress and predicting something similar

@Haney: Thanks for your comment. But I don’t share your optimism.

I don’t think retrogression will be lifted in the April visa bulletin. I don’t even think retrogression will be lifted in 2008.

The jump forward in the March bulletin for EB3 was a preemptive move by DOS/USCIS, in my opinion.

For more, see my previous comment here.

Since we are on predictions…

Can you predict how long will it take for a PD of 9/2004 to become current. I know you dont have a crystal ball…but your informed opinion could make some of my decisions easier.

I wanted to add EB2 -India.

I hope f2a moves a year in april!

I’m being super optimistic and humorous.

@Vick: I really have no idea. I don’t see it happening in the next 12 months.

@SoloMon: Nice try!

Hi, I am new to this site and the title ‘visa bulletin prediction’ sound strange to me after my internet surfing reveals that visa bulletin can not be predicted. any way, a person like me who is waiting for visa bulletin every month will be eager to know even the most casual prediction. Since the title say visa bulletin prediction so I would like to know how is FB1 category predicted to move in coming 1 year. Do you thing that I would moved 8-9 months in an year time.

@Chachu: Hi. I completely agree with you that the visa bulletin cannot be predicted. If you stick around here long enough, you’ll find that I am a broken record saying no one can predict the visa bulletin – not even the people running it.

That said, sometimes there are hints at future movement in the notes of the visa bulletin itself. See the March bulletin. The notes of the March bulletin explained why EB3 dates jumped forward so dramatically and emphasized that dates might slow or stop in future bulletins. Those notes, in addition to postings I’ve read on the AILA website, are what gave me some confidence in making my prediction (read guess).

But I really have no idea about how far F1 might move in the next year, particularly when you haven’t told me where you’re from. Best we can do is monitor the bulletin each month and see what happens. I hope you’ll come back here to check!

Hi John. I guess it’s not bad to optimistic when you have been waiting endlessly for your interview date for the longest time when the other sgot to the US in less than 18 months. I always surf the internet for all the opinions and declarations of almost all Immigrant lawyers and some of them are quite positive.
Although yes, no one can predict the VB movement, even the president of US, it’s not a sin to dream and to give some of your supporters a glimpse of something to look forward to. I’m under EB3 category and my PD is July 2006, Philippines.
Just my thought.
Just my thoughts.

@Carmen: Hi. Thanks for your comment.

Hi john
Thanks for the elaboration. I am in FB1 (rest of the world) of unmarried son and daughter of US citizen with a PD of Oct 2002. I want to know if there is any possibility that my PD could be reached in an year time. FB1 is higly oversbuscribed and it did really bad in past 3-4 years, but showed some movement untill Jan bulletin and then slowed down again. Its really frustrating for every one who is waiting for so long. can you make a guess about FB1 for rest of the world.
Thanks in advance

John,
Is there any chances for Indian Nurses to get I485 in near future or in 2008.

I think the EB3 ROW category will move forward in April by a couple of months to April, 2005. Eb2 for India is unavailable and Eb3 India will become U, due to 7% of quote being reached in march ( new name check memo will make a lot of Eb3 India eligible), being EB2 and Eb3 India out of combat and China close to reach 7%, the universe of pending applications eligible for approval will be= ROW+ Mexico+Phillipines- China -India, which would represent a substantial decrease…I truly believe the demand from ROW countries is much less than what USCIS and DOS believe it is

In 9 months time how many months is family 4th pre expected to move

We are waiting for our our PD be current under EB 3 category. may I ask you if its ok if I will apply for a tourist visa because I will be attending the America Library Association this coming June. Thank you.

Hi John,

Thanks for having this page, stumbled upon it while figuring out the steps and hurdles one must go through to become legal resident

In your response to Vik’s comment you said “…I don’t see it happening in the next 12 months” I am assuming you said this because he mentioned India. But if one were from any other part of the world (not China or Philippines) would this 01 Jan 2005 cut off mean that a people whose PD is before or on 01/01/05 can file I-485? I see its a major jump, do these dates ever go in the backward direction?

Sorry for the basic question, just new to this process and trying to figure out the technicalities behind the (so-called) system.

Thanks!

@Chachu: I really don’t know how long it will take for the cutoff date in your category to catch up with your priority date. I hope things change in your favor.

@Siva: I am not optimistic about immigration relief for Indian nurses. But other lawyers are, so who knows. I don’t know of any significant movements going on right now, but I will post announcements to this blog if I hear anything.

@Luis H: Very insightful! Thanks for your comment. EB3 India unavailable might be a solid prediction. We’ll see.

@Shiv: I have no clue. Stay posted.

@Jeloux: There is no harm in trying. Just be sure to present all details of your trip as evidence.

@MMS: You are exactly right about the relationship between the cutoff date in a visa preference category and the priority date of individual applicants.

And, yes, the cutoff dates can and do go backwards. Sometimes a category will be marked with a “U”, indicating there are currently no visas available – see the employment-based second preference (EB2) for nationals of India in the March bulletin.

It might seem like a basic question, but it’s fundamentally important to how the visa bulletin works. Thanks for asking.

My prediction is the EB3 ROW will move to June / July 2005 i.e the same as before the June / July 2007 VB was released . I am hoping it moves forward by 1 year but it is just a wishful thinking

What are the predictions for Family based 2A preference ? Is it going to change by oe month as usually?

Fb4(rest of the world) was moving at a very fast rate around mid last year and then it later on slowed down. In Feb this year, it didnt move at all! and then in march, it only moved 7 days. My PD is sept 2007 and right now they are still in July 2007. we were expecting it be current since last year because of the fast movement, but now it seems to take forever. Can anyone predict how far Fb4 will move in April and how soon my PD is likely to be reached?

I am from the Phils. & has taken the nclex but failed last Jan/2008. Do you have any idea if I could still get my visa? My PD is about to be current.

the f3 is not moving at all!.. im from the philippines…. the f3 is stuck and we have waitin for ages… im going to be 21 years old this july…. and our petition is june 1991.. im kinda scared if im going to be over aged… i just hope before july im already in the US…

my eb3 PD is june 2006,but i am trying out for canada’s provincial nominee temporary working permit and i have positive remarks from the employer hospital. would it be wise for me to pursue canada 1st sine i have no guarantee my pd will be current in the coming months. tnxs

Hi Jon,

I’m EB3 Phil. My PD is Aug 2004. I-140 & I-485 filed concurrently in Nebraska in July 2007. Any fierce forcecast as to when my papers will be approve or whatever.

Thanks

What are the predictions for Family based 2A preference ? Is it going to change by oe month as usually?

My Priority Date Aug26, 1996.
Third preference, Mexico.
Married Daugther of an American Citizen.
Could you predict anything on my case?

Indian National with EB2. PD of Nov’2006. Currently, I have approved I-140 and EAD, however I-485 is pending. Any thoughts on how long it may take for my case to become current. I am considering Employment change on AC21.Any thoughts?

I predict FB4 (rest of the world) moves 5wks in April bulletin to Aug 22

@SAS: I hope you’re right.

@Ols: No predictions for family 2A preference. I haven’t been following it closely. April bulletin should be out very soon (Tuesday seems about right).

@Moi: I wouldn’t want to guess with just a few more days until the April bulletin is out. Check back soon. That prediction might be a little optimistic…

@Clara: The NCLEX is something I’m not very familiar with.. I’ve only filed nurse petitions where the applicant had completed everything. Maybe someone else has been in the same situation and can help her?

@Rachelle: I just looked at the last few visa bulletins at the F3 preference, and you aren’t kidding. It hasn’t moved at all in recent bulletins. Hopefully the April visa bulletin will break the pattern. Your MySpace page might have some mutant code in it – it crashed my browser!

@Ray: Where are you from?

@Bong: Hi. You should keep an eye on the April visa bulletin and the processing times over at USCIS. See USCIS processing times. Check your receipt notices for the receipt date, and crosscheck that with the current USCIS processing date (using the link I provided).

@Jess: I have no guess on family 2A preference. Are you Ols?

@MLGL: The cutoff date is 15 July 1992 for your category (family-based 3rd preference for nationals of Mexico). Unfortunately, it’s impossible to predict that far into the future. April bulletin is out very soon.

@KB: EB2 India is a tough one. If numbers do become available in the April visa bulletin for EB2 India (notes of a previous bulletin said some visa number might be made available in the second half of the fiscal year, which is the April bulletin), I don’t think the cutoff date has any chance of catching up with your priority date (November 2006 EB2 India). It is possible.. But my prediction is that there will be no real movement in India EB2 until the next fiscal year (October 2008). And, even then, the movement might not be very significant. Did you have a specific question about AC21?

my priority date is 25 Jan 2003. Can you predict when i will be able to migrate to the us. Also can you let me know after i have gotten a visa number whats the next step.

St.kitts
Thanks for you help

im from the philippines. Im considering applying to canda first since my eb3 PD is june 06. Again will this be a wise decision considering the PDs have moved considerably. Tnx agen

hey john who are you?.. lol..sorry im just askin.. and thanks for your reply.. anyway, i really hope you are right… i hope this april i will see a remarkable movement with f3 preference… that would be a greatest moment in my life.. f3 is frozen for ages… it does move, but backward…what a life!..

anyways, lol.. my myspace?!… hehehe… thanks for checking it out.. can i add you on my friendlist.. hehe.. kiddin…

John,
You are the best a straight answer and for free. Anyway, I want your opinion what time frame I should look for under this circumstance. EB3 India, priority date 10/02, filled I-485 12/03, case transfered to NBC 6/07, interviewed 10/07. Priority date not current during interview per IO everything is good.

Hi sir john c,
can i ask again if itswise to pursue my canadian provincial nominee temporary work visa since i had a very positive reply from the hospital employer. In fact they are asking me to pass my credentials at the embassy. Will it be a wise move since my pd is june 06 for my US eb3 application. I feel i cannot again gamble this yr waiting for retrogression to be lifted. So i made the decision to try somewhere else. Your advise will be much appreciated. Thank you in advance. Ray philippines

Hello John, I just want to ask if the visa availability is somehow affected because of the coming presidential election there in the USA ?

my priority date is15 sep 2003. Can you predict when i will be able to migrate to the us. Also can you let me know after i have gotten a visa number whats the next step.

for category family preference 2A

Thanks for Replying. How safe is AC21. I have skipped three jobs from the time my H1 was first sponsored and if I were to exercise AC21 to move again, is it considered too frequent hops . Also, any pitfalls with AC21 portability?

Dear John,
I know that the April bulletin is expected soon, but it will take a miracle to witness a jump from Aug 2001 to june 2003 (my PD) this month, given how slow the movement has been in the past 6 months. Still, how do you see the movement of EB3 India, going forward? We would really appreciate a realistic estimate of when our PD of June 2003 might become current? Do you see this happening by Feb- March 2009? I know that it is impossible to predict trends accurately, just give us your best and worst estimate. Getting impatient because of a position I’m anticipating.

John, what is your prediction for EB3-Row April 2008 Visa Bulletin? My PD is 07/06 when do you think this will be current?

Hi John,

As per your prediction, when do you think that retrogression for EB3 will be lifted? & why? I’m on my packet 4 that’s why I am very eager about every month’s bulletin.

Many thanks!

when will the april visa bulletin come out?

India
EB1 – C
EB2 – Jan 2002
EB3 – Oct 2001

Just a guess

my pd is sept 7 2005 eb3 im a caregiver when do u think will my pd be current thanks

FB1 = Feb 22, 2002

John,
Good day! I’m in the EB3 category and my PD is January 10,2005. Do you think that the Visa Bulletin this April would at least move forward and reached my PD? And if ever it will move a liitle bit further and cover up my PD would that mean that I will finally get my visa? I had my interview at the U.S. Embassy last May,2006 but I was not given a visa because my documents was still incomplete at that time. Last August 1,2007 I completely submitted all the required documents but unfortunately because of unavailability of visa numbers I was not again given the visa. After the very long wait will I finally get my visa soon?
Thank you in advance John. I’m eagerly waiting for the April bulletin to come out. I just hope a lot of hopeful nurses will be happy with what we are about to see in the upcoming bulletin.
God bless!

@Winston Stapleton: Which category did you apply for? Employment-based? Family?

@Ray: My prediction is that EB3 will not go forward very much further, if at all, in this fiscal year (through September 2008). Hopefully I’m wrong.

See the notes from the March bulletin,

The cut-off date movement for March in several Employment categories has been greater than those experienced in recent months. Advancement of the cut-off dates at this time should prevent a situation later in the fiscal year where there are large amounts of numbers available but not enough time to use them. If the expected increase in CIS number use materializes, future cut-off date movements could slow or stop.

@Rachelle: Almost 30 year old living on the East Coast. I’ve worked on employment-based immigration matters since 2001 (before, during and after law school). I’m not on MySpace.

@Lostboy: Thanks for your comment. The cutoff date for EB3 India in the March bulletin was August 1, 2001. It didn’t jump forward with Philippines and ROW. And I don’t expect it to move forward very much, if at all, in the upcoming visa bulletins. Again, hopefully I’m wrong.

@Edz: Not at all. Maybe indirectly because it is difficult for Congress to get anything done during a time of excessive politicking. But the visa numbers are predetermined.

@Sim: I’m not sure. The April visa bulletin should be out any day now – maybe it will tell us more.

@KB: What does “skipped three jobs” mean? So long as each change of employment was valid, there is no overall limit on “hops”.

@ONM: I sincerely appreciate your impatience. Believe me when I tell you that I am sympathetic. I worked at an immigration law firm after graduating from college, and nearly all of the applications I filed (mostly EB3 Indian applications in 2001) are still pending. I can’t imagine having to wait that long for something so important. Unfortunately, I don’t predict very much progress (if any) in EB3 India in the coming months. Like you said, though, the April bulletin will be out soon and maybe it will tell us more. I have no idea when the cutoff date will catch up to your priority date.

@RIDO: My prediction is very little movement (if any) for EB3 ROW in the April visa bulletin. I don’t know when your priority date will be current. There might not be very much movement after the April bulletin either.

@Munch: Hi. I don’t think retrogression will be lifted in 2008. And it’s anyone’s guess what will happen in 2009. I wish you luck, though. I’ll be posting the bulletin here regularly, so check back when you can.

@PVV: I actually thought the April visa bulletin would come out today. But it should be out any day now…

@San: We’ll see…

@Hermie: I don’t predict much movement, see my earlier comments above.

@Chachu: I agree.

@Max: Hello. Ten days movement might be possible. I hope so. If your date becomes current, you should be contacted at the address they have on file. Contact the embassy if you want to know about their specific procedures. Good luck. Check back here soon, the April bulletin will be posted any day now.

where is the april bulletin?….. it should be posted by now..

yep where’s the april visa bulletin? been waiting for it..

@Rachelle and Maith: I’m not sure. No sign of the April visa bulletin yet. Sometimes, the bulletin is posted at aila.org before it’s posted on the State Department’s site. I’m checking both frequently.